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Graphviz和对应的python接口安装

万万没想到再次遇见了Graphviz和它的坑。第一次遇见Graphviz是在本科。当时是被要求手写代码完成一个C4.5的模型然后把决策树画出来。记得当时用了一个逐层嵌套的字典来存储决策树。然后为了画图,使用了Graphviz工具。当时觉得Graphviz配置真的好麻烦。用了一次之后就将其卸载了。没想到今天又重演了两年前的一幕。 浅介绍一下Graphviz,摘自Graphviz官网。 ...

Time Series Notes (6) - Parameter estimation

Residual Analysis Definition of residuals Consider an $\text{AR}(1)$ model with a constant term: $Z_t=\phi Z_{t-1}+\theta_0+a_t$, having estimated $\phi$ and $\theta_0$, the residuals are defined...

Time Series Notes (5) - Parameter estimation

Introduction The hyper parameters of a time series model, for example, $p,d,q$ for an $\text{ARIMA}(p,d,q)$ model is already known. And the model will be completely determined if the values of par...

Time Series Notes (4) - Model specification

Model-building strategy Box-Jenkins method for model-building strategy graph TD A([Start with a time series realization]) --> B[Identify a preliminary time series model] --> C[Estimat...

Time Series Notes (3) - Non-stationary linear time series models

Stationarity through differencing Non-stationarity in mean Any time series with a mean function that evolves over time is non-stationary. Consider a series of the form [Z_t=\mu_t+X_t] where $\m...

Giscus的基础设置

在我最早大二搭建博客的时候,就有尝试过第三方的评论系统。我记得当时用的是Hexo的Next主题,这个主题好像是支持一些常见的评论系统的快速配置的。记得当时尝试过的有Disqus和LiveRe两种评论系统。这两个评论系统的特点是网站的所有者需要在这两个网站上注册一个账号,并且在网站内加入一个标识值。也就是说,评论的信息其实还是在这两个公司的服务器中,或者说,是这两个公司对评论数据是直接保管的。...

Cloudflare Email Routing的基础设置

昨天除了发现Cloudflare Pages这个好东西,还在Cloudflare上面发现了一个邮件转发的功能。在这之前我是在腾讯的邮箱注册了一个组织来免费使用自定义我自己这个域名下的邮箱。总而言之呢就是虽然实现了邮件的收发功能,但是在腾讯邮箱需要填写很多的东西,而且也是需要实名注册的。但是我域名又没有在国内实名制备案,迟早会有麻烦事。相比于腾讯邮箱,这个Cloudflare的邮件转发功能就很...

Cloudflare Pages的基础设置

由于众所周知的原因,GitHub肯定是需要搭梯子才能访问到的。GitHub Pages也不像国内的普通网站访问这么稳定,一直很想找一个可以对这个博客网站提供镜像的服务商。之前有朋友在Netlify上面成功对博客进行了镜像处理,在配置后从GitHub自动拉取到发布都实现了自动化。但是比较复杂,甚至为了使用CDN需要重新更改NS服务提供商为Netlify。对于像我一样已经把域名的Registra...

Time Series Notes (2) - Stationary linear time series models

General linear processes Definition Linear time series A time series ${Z_t}$ is linear if the value of $Z_t$ is a linear function of a white noise sequence. Causal time series A time series ${...

Time Series Notes (1) - Fundamental concepts

What is time series? Defintion of times series A time series is stochastic process in discrete time, that is a sequence of random variables ${Z_t}$, which are ordered by a time index $t$. Two ch...

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